While U.S. stainless steel demand is forecast to remain unchanged in 2024, recent market trends suggest that stainless steel prices may remain depressed due to falling nickel prices. While demand is expected to stabilise, this market dynamic has important implications for both producers and consumers of stainless steel.
As the primary raw material for stainless steel production, the decline in nickel prices has a direct impact on the cost and price of stainless steel production. Since the beginning of 2023, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap has fallen by 10 per cent, driven in large part by falling nickel prices. This trend is expected to continue, largely because consumer demand has yet to return to normal levels following the New Crown epidemic and related unrest.
According to the latest data from the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), global stainless steel scrap meltshop production fell by 2% year-on-year to 28.44 million tonnes in the first half of 2023. This data reflects the supply and demand situation in the global stainless steel market. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2023, the U.S. stainless steel production fell 13.5% to 942,000 tonnes. This figure reflects the production and demand situation in the U.S. stainless steel market.
Overall, while U.S. stainless steel demand is expected to remain unchanged in 2024, falling nickel prices could lead to low steel prices. This will have an impact on stainless steel producers and consumers.
